A Bayesian Lagrange-Multiplier Framework for Spatial Cross-Section, Panel, and Flow Models

Spatial Economic Analysis, forthcoming · Current

Eight histograms, one per Bayesian Lagrange-multiplier statistic on the Columbus crime data, each marked with the 5 percent chi-squared critical value as a dashed line and the posterior mean as a solid red line.
Posterior distributions of eight Bayesian LM statistics on the Columbus crime data. Each panel marks the 5% χ² critical value (dashed) and the posterior mean (solid); the spread of each posterior carries the uncertainty in the model's parameters into the test.

Lagrange-multiplier tests are the standard misspecification diagnostics of spatial econometrics, but models fit by Markov chain Monte Carlo have had no equivalent: analysts either refit a frequentist model at the posterior mean or compare marginal likelihoods, which is expensive. The paper builds the Bayesian counterpart. One template, a score evaluated on each posterior draw of the restricted model, reproduces the classical diagnostics for cross-sectional models and extends without structural change to the spatial Durbin family, static spatial panels, and origin–destination flow models. Each statistic carries a full posterior distribution, so the test reports its own uncertainty.

The tests ship in neighbayes.